2020 was a year for the books.
We endured an impeachment trial, a global pandemic, hundreds of thousands of related American deaths, a government-mandated business shutdown, the biggest economic contraction since the Great Depression, the fastest bear market in history, the fastest bull market in history, a contentious election, and effective vaccines in record time.
And 2021 is off to a challenging start as well, beginning with an assault on the Capitol building and now a second impeachment.
It’s a lot to say, much less digest. No wonder millions of investors found the last 12 months so confounding.
Yet through all the chaos and volatility, Chief Investment Strategist Alexander Green has provided a calm voice, a rational perspective and plenty of dead-on investment research.
Let’s think back…
A year ago, most investors expected a smooth continuation of the ongoing economic boom.
After all, the market was coming off a good year – the S&P 500 returned 30.4% in 2019 – and the trend was our friend.
But that always can – and sometimes will – change in a hurry.
That’s exactly what Alex emphasized to readers in the first week of 2020.
In his January 6 column, he wrote…
Today I’ll reveal the unvarnished truth about how things will turn out in 2020.
However, it’s a bitter truth you may not want to hear: No one knows… Economic forecasting and market timing can’t be done accurately and consistently and, therefore, don’t add value.
He advised readers to embrace this uncertainty and protect their portfolios by asset allocating properly, diversifying broadly and running trailing stops behind individual stock positions.
That turned out to be valuable advice indeed when the market began to melt down in mid-February.
Yet Alex reminded readers to stick with their discipline.
In his March 16 column – just six days before the market bottom – he told readers not to panic:
Stocks have always bounced back from adversity. Always.
… At a future date – and it could be much sooner than you expect – investors will look back at today’s market and realize that they could have responded in a way that was decent… great… or awful.
The awful investor sells in a panic – and always finds reasons to justify it. The decent investor at least stands pat – and reinvests his or her dividends, if possible. The best investors? They are moving money out of cash or bonds and into beaten-down, high-quality stocks.
Could there possibly have been better or more sensible advice as millions of investors panicked and hit the exits?
For subscribers of Alex’s Oxford Communiqué, the answer was “yes.”
On March 24, the day after the market bottomed, he put out a Portfolio Update titled “It’s Time to Load Up Again.”
The coronavirus is bad. But it’s not the end for the national economy. The widely recognized problems we face are now well discounted in the market…
The Federal Reserve is pulling out all the stops to provide financial markets with the liquidity they need. Uncle Sam and state and local governments – in concert with business leaders – will do whatever is necessary to keep the U.S. economy afloat… That’s why it’s time to start getting back into equities.
In that same alert, he also re-recommended a stock, now up 157%, after Members were stopped out during the coronavirus crash. And he recommended that subscribers average down on several holdings, one of which is now up 147% and another of which – MyoKardia – was bought out at a huge premium by Bristol Myers Squibb.
Several of Alex’s subsequent recommendations have also more than doubled in just a matter of months.
Over the two months following the market bottom, stocks rebounded 25%. Alex told readers to stay optimistic.
In his April 23 column, he rejected leading medical authorities who insisted that an approved coronavirus vaccine was “at least 18 months away.”
Right now millions of scientists and technicians are running tens of thousands of experiments on this virus. We will have an effective treatment and a vaccine sooner than most people – including the “experts” – expect.
His bullish tone was reflected in column after column throughout the rest of the year, with headlines like:
- “What ‘the Market’ Understands That Health Experts Don’t“
- “The Investment Upside of COVID-19“
- “These Super-Safe Stocks Offer the Highest Returns“
- “Fortune Favors the Brave… and So Does the Stock Market“
- “How to Stay Positive Despite Widespread Negativity, Toxic Politics… and a Global Pandemic.”
Great research like this has won Alex legions of fans, including longtime subscriber and bestselling author Bill O’Reilly. And it’s the reason I was thrilled to present Alex with The Oxford Club’s Top Track Record Award for 2020.
(Now, all investment does carry risk and past performance is no guarantee of future success, but Alex’s newsletter The Oxford Communiqué has had an average gain of 20% with an average holding time of 464 days.)
What is Alex saying now? Not what most would expect.
In his first column of 2021, he told readers that the good news – the waning of the pandemic and a budding economic recovery – is already priced into stocks and that now is a time for caution and greater selectivity.
In sum, Alex offers some of the best investment research in the nation. He’s been doing it for over two decades now.
And you’re getting it right here each week for free.
To access his hard-hitting recommendations, however, you need to subscribe to his investment research letter, The Oxford Communiqué, with four model portfolios – including 18 current triple-digit winners.
If history is any guide, you’ll be glad you did.