Over the course of the last few columns, I’ve talked about two big reasons why I’m bullish on 2025.
The first is the productivity boom occurring in the U.S. (American workers are doing more with less.)
The second is the pro-business policies of the incoming Donald Trump administration.
(Tax cuts, deregulation, Opportunity Zones, and less government waste will ignite further economic growth and higher corporate profits.)
Yet these reasons weren’t convincing for some readers.
A few wrote to tell me it would take a lot more than that to change all the negative trends in this country.
I can only assume these are new subscribers. Because I go out of my way on a regular basis to point out that things aren’t nearly as bad as most people assume.
True, the Joe Biden years will not be remembered fondly by millions of Americans.
The humiliating U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, the highest inflation in 40 years, $8.1 trillion in new debt, an unwillingness to staunch the flow of millions of illegal aliens on our Southern border, and a virtual conspiracy to hide his cognitive decline made a strong impression on voters.
(And eventually forced him off the ticket.)
Yet the state of our economy, the nation and even the world is hardly as dire as portrayed in the media – especially on social media.
A few examples:
- The U.S. economy is the envy of the world, growing at a 3.1% annual rate in the third quarter.
- The U.S. is the only major world economy that is growing faster post-pandemic than it was pre-pandemic.
- Jobs are up, wages are up, and inflation – while still too high – is only a fraction of a point from the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.
- Unemployment is near a 50-year low.
- The U.S. manufacturing sector has more jobs than at any time since the administration of George W. Bush.
- There are no U.S. troops at war overseas.
- Sweden joined NATO last year and Finland joined in 2023, making our alliance stronger.
- Two world troublemakers – Russia and Iran – are struggling badly. Russia is losing about 1,500 soldiers a day in Ukraine. Iran has seen the devastation of two proxies – Hamas and Hezbollah – and the fall of another ally, Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
- Despite what you see on cable news, the U.S. has the lowest violent crime rate in over 50 years.
- Drug overdose deaths have fallen for the first time in years, plunging 17% in 2024.
- Youth vaping is at its lowest level in a decade.
- The obesity crisis plateaued with the introduction of injectable medications for weight loss.
- AI is already starting to lower health care costs, improve test results and speed up drug discovery.
- There have been several medical advances recently. The FDA approved donanemab, a new treatment for early Alzheimer’s disease. A new cervical cancer treatment shows promise. And the world’s first personalized mRNA cancer vaccine entered trials.
- Global life expectancy continues to increase.
- Extreme global poverty has decreased from 36% in 1990 to 9% today.
- And U.S. carbon emissions continue to decline. They are now 17% below 2005 levels.
Yes, there are plenty of terrible things happening in the world today too.
But, as an investor, you need to balance the bad news with an understanding of the positive trends as well.
It doesn’t hurt for Westerners to stop occasionally and recognize that we are living longer, safer, richer, freer lives than any people in the history of the world.
Americans have much to celebrate, especially on the economic front.
The Federal Reserve reported last year that median household income hit a record. So did median household net wealth.
There are a record number of American millionaires.
Corporate sales and earnings are up. So are profit margins. And so are share prices.
The S&P 500 had 57 record closes last year.
My point? We’re all prone to grumble about all the things that are wrong with the world.
But if you’re going to risk your hard-earned capital in the stock market, you need to appreciate the positive developments as well.
There have always been serious problems in the world. And there always will be.
Yet, in many ways, the trend really is your friend.
But you have to realize it if you want to take advantage of it.